Tuesday 27 May 2014

GTA Pre-Construction Condo Sales Declined 19%

Pre-construction condo sales in the City of Toronto were down 5% in April 2014 versus a year earlier (down 47% compared to April 2012). In the GTA new condo sales were down 19% versus a year earlier and 51% versus two years ago.

What is especially interesting is that lately the pre-construction condo market has become quite volatile. While in March 2014 new condo sales were up 150% compared to a year earlier, in April sales declined. See chart below:

new condo sales market toronto 2014

What hasn't become volatile is the price. In fact, new condo prices have remained remarkably flat since dropping slightly in 2011. See chart below:

For now it may appear as if this is a "soft landing". Yet, I do not expect a soft landing for the condo market in Toronto. In my view condo prices will be down at least 20% from the peak in real terms. So far new condo prices declined about 6.4% from 2011 (adjusted for inflation).

Below is a historical perspective of new condo sales in the City of Toronto. As you can see pre-con sales were just below the 14 year average in April 2014.

Below is the updated graph for the number of apartment units (both rental and condos) under construction in the Greater Toronto Area. Note that most of the apartments under construction are condos.

toronto condo units under construction graph



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