Friday, 16 August 2013

Toronto Housing Market is Back!

According to the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) the number of sales in the GTA increased by over 22% during the first two weeks of August. In reality, total sales have increased by 17.6% at best. See the explanation why in my previous post, found here.

Additionally, as was originally pinpointed by Canadian Watchdog - a commentator on Garth Turner's blog, more existing sales now include pre-sales and developer sales. In other words, TREB stats now include new home sales which originally were tracked by Realnet. Thus, according to Canadian Watchdog, the only way to monitor Toronto's housing market conditions is to consolidate resale with new home sales.

Regardless of this statistical mess, it does indeed seem that Toronto home sales have rebounded. Yet I think this a short term phenomenon. As I wrote previously, it is quite possible that more people jumped into the market now as the mortgage rates have started rising. Folks just want to secure low rates while they are still available. So don't be surprised when sales decline again closer to the end of the year.

But how about prices? Well in the city, the average price of detached homes declined by 1.0% compared to a year earlier. In contrast condos went up by almost 8%. The Toronto condo bubble just inflated even more.

Below is a summary table of the housing market conditions in Toronto during first two weeks of August. Note, my table differs from the official version published by TREB. See the explanation here.

toronto housing market august 2013 summary graph



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